Inflation, jobs, and retail: the data trifecta driving markets
High Impact News – 13 to 17 October 2025
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🔍 Top Macro Highlights This Week
RBA Minutes – Tone check down under (Oct 14, 01:30 BST)
Tuesday opens with the RBA’s meeting minutes. Traders will look for clues on whether the Bank is edging closer to policy easing after holding at 3.6%. If the minutes lean dovish, AUD could slip as markets price in earlier cuts.
UK Labour Market & Eurozone Inflation (Oct 14, 07:00 BST)
London opens to back-to-back prints: UK unemployment, wage, and claimant data alongside the Eurozone’s final CPI. With the BoE still walking the inflation tightrope, any rise in joblessness or cooling wage pressure strengthens the case for rate relief.
China CPI – Still below zero (Oct 15, 02:30 BST)
China’s September CPI remains in focus after the last negative reading (-0.4%). Continued deflation risks could keep pressure on Beijing to stimulate, with ripple effects across commodities and Asia-Pac currencies.
U.S. CPI – The main event (Oct 15, 13:30 BST)
All eyes on Washington. Headline inflation is expected around 2.9% YoY, core at 3.1%. A higher print reopens the “higher-for-longer” debate, while a miss could energise equities and weaken USD as traders front-run 2026 cuts.
Australia Jobs Report (Oct 16, 01:30 BST)
Employment data follows two days later. After last month’s -5.4K print, a rebound would steady AUD; another miss would underline slowing momentum.
U.S. Retail Sales & PPI (Oct 16, 13:30 BST)
The American consumer remains the economy’s backbone. A 0.6% sales consensus sets the bar. If spending holds firm, the Fed may resist softening its tone despite easing inflation.
BoC Governor Macklem Speech (Oct 16, 18:30 BST)
The week closes with BoC remarks after mixed Canadian data. Markets will be looking for any shift from “wait-and-see” toward dovish rhetoric as growth cools.
📊 Other Notables
– Eurozone CPI final read (Sep 14)
– China CPI (Sep 15)
– U.S. Retail Sales + PPI combo (Oct 16)
🧠 Big Picture
This week is pure macro chess: inflation, jobs, and retail all move the board. Central banks aren’t easing yet, but every data point chips away at their confidence. Expect sharper intraday reactions as traders weigh whether “sticky inflation” or “slowing growth” wins the next round.