Inflation and growth collide: a heavyweight week for global data
High Impact News: 19 - 24 October 2025
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🔍 Top Macro Highlights This Week
New Zealand CPI (Q3) – Sunday kickoff (Oct 19, 22:45 BST)
The macro week starts early with New Zealand inflation. Annual CPI sits near 2.7%, inside the RBNZ’s comfort zone but well below last year’s highs. A soft print strengthens the case for further easing in early 2026.
China GDP and activity data – growth test (Oct 20, 03:00 BST)
Monday brings a full Chinese data batch: GDP, retail sales, and industrial output. Q3 growth is expected at 5.2% YoY, still solid but slowing. These numbers will set the tone for commodities and risk sentiment across Asia.
Canada CPI – core stubbornness (Oct 21, 13:30 BST)
Tuesday shifts focus to Canada. Core CPI (2.6% YoY) remains sticky, keeping the BoC on alert even as growth cools. Any upside surprise could dent expectations for Q4 cuts.
UK CPI – inflation versus jobs (Oct 22, 07:00 BST)
The UK’s September CPI lands Wednesday, following weak labour data. Headline inflation is expected around 3.8%. A downside surprise could finally ease pressure on the BoE after months of policy deadlock.
Friday macro storm – PMIs and U.S. CPI (Oct 24)
Friday is loaded: flash PMIs for Europe and the UK hit early, followed by U.S. CPI at 13:30 BST.
– Eurozone PMIs will test the Q4 growth pulse (services near 51.5).
– UK PMIs should confirm a slow return to expansion.
– U.S. CPI and core inflation remain the main event: markets want proof that the Fed’s “soft landing” is still alive. A hot print reignites rate jitters; a miss could drive a USD fade into month-end.
📊 Other Notables
– AUD RBA Minutes (Tue 01:30 BST) – tone check after holding at 3.6%.
– GBP Retail Sales (Fri 07:00 BST) – will show whether UK consumers are still spending through the squeeze.
🧠 Big Picture
The week reads like a global temperature check: China tests growth, Western economies test inflation. Central banks may be done hiking, but the data still decides when they start cutting. Expect heightened volatility around Friday’s CPI trifecta (US, UK, Eurozone). For traders, this is the kind of macro week where discipline pays and over-exposure hurts.