RBA, Eurozone inflation, and U.S. jobs take the spotlight
High Impact Events: 29th September – 3rd October 2025
🔍 Top Macro Highlights This Week
China PMIs (Sep 30)
The week begins with a heavy PMI release from China at 01:30–01:45 BST. Both official NBS and private RatingDog surveys cover manufacturing and services. With manufacturing struggling near contraction, investors will be looking for signs of stabilisation. Commodities and AUD may be most reactive.
RBA Decision & Press Conference (Sep 30)
At 04:30 BST, the Reserve Bank of Australia sets rates, followed by a press conference at 05:30 BST. With rates steady at 3.6%, markets want to know if the RBA is preparing to cut in 2025 or stay patient. A hawkish tilt could lift AUD, while dovish signals may weigh on it.
Eurozone CPI Prelim – September (Sep 30 & Oct 1)
Eurozone inflation takes centre stage across two days: headline CPI and HICP arrive Tuesday at 12:00 BST, followed by core CPI on Wednesday at 09:00 BST. Consensus has inflation holding near 2%, but core stickiness remains a concern. The data could directly shape ECB expectations for Q4.
Japan Tankan Survey (Sep 30)
Tuesday night at 23:50 BST, the Tankan Large Manufacturing Index is due, with expectations of +13. A softer reading could reinforce global slowdown fears and drag on JPY crosses.
U.S. Labour Market Preview – ADP (Oct 1)
Wednesday at 12:15 BST, ADP employment change prints, offering a hint for Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. With hiring slowing, even modest surprises could influence USD sentiment ahead of the main event.
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct 1)
Later Wednesday at 14:00 BST, the ISM manufacturing PMI arrives, last at 48.7. Traders will be watching whether U.S. factory activity remains in contraction.
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls & Wages (Oct 3)
Friday at 12:30 BST brings September’s Nonfarm Payrolls. The prior print showed just +22K jobs, pointing to a sharply cooling labour market. Average hourly earnings (3.7% YoY) will also be key for Fed inflation concerns. Together, these could redefine rate-cut expectations into year-end.
ISM Services PMI (Oct 3)
At 14:00 BST, ISM services PMI follows. With services holding up better than manufacturing, markets will look for confirmation that consumer-facing sectors are still resilient.
📊 Other Notable Releases
– GBP Q2 GDP (Sep 30, 06:00 BST)
– CHF CPI (Oct 2, 06:30 BST)
– BoJ Governor Ueda speech (Oct 3, 01:05 BST)
– BoE Governor Bailey speech (Oct 3, 13:20 BST)
🧠 Big Picture
This week offers a global snapshot of growth and inflation: Chinese PMIs for activity, Eurozone CPI for price trends, and U.S. labour data for the Fed’s trajectory. The RBA adds a policy anchor early, while central bank speeches from Bailey and Ueda round out the week. With U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls sitting at the core, traders should be prepared for a potentially volatile Friday that could reset expectations across FX, equities, and bonds into Q4.