High Impact News: 6th – 10th October 2025
🔍 Top Macro Highlights This Week
ECB & BoE – A week of speeches (Oct 6 – 7)
We start the week with back-to-back remarks from ECB President Lagarde and BoE Governor Bailey. Both are expected to address the inflation-growth trade-off still challenging Europe. Traders will listen for any sign that rate-cut discussions are creeping closer to the table.
RBNZ Rate Decision – The Kiwi’s moment (Oct 8, 02:00 BST)
Wednesday begins in Wellington with the RBNZ decision. Markets expect a 25 bps cut to 2.75%. A softer statement could pressure NZD further, while any pushback against aggressive easing might offer temporary support.
FOMC Minutes – Reading between the lines (Oct 8, 19:00 BST)
Later the same day, the Fed releases minutes from its latest meeting. Investors will comb through them for clues on how divided the committee is on the timing of first rate cuts. Expect volatility across USD and Treasuries if the tone leans more hawkish than Powell’s recent remarks.
Powell Speaks Again (Oct 9, 13:30 BST)
Thursday brings another appearance from the Fed Chair. His language around “higher for longer” policy will either cement or challenge the market’s view that the tightening cycle is over.
Canada Labour Market – Stabilising or slowing? (Oct 10, 13:30 BST)
Friday sees Canada’s September jobs data. After a massive -65.5K drop last month, consensus looks for a mild +2.8K recovery with unemployment steady at 7.1%. Weakness could reignite talk of BoC cuts by year-end.
U.S. Consumer Sentiment – Mood check (Oct 10, 15:00 BST)
The University of Michigan’s survey is expected near 55. After a summer of mixed signals, this will offer a final snapshot of household confidence before the next CPI release.
📊 Other Notables
– BoJ Governor Ueda speaks (Oct 8, 02:45 BST) as markets watch for follow-through after recent policy adjustments.
– Three Lagarde speeches through the week underscore the ECB’s attempt to control narrative ahead of October CPI revisions.
🧠 Big Picture
This is a week dominated by central bank tone rather than fresh data. RBNZ decisions, FOMC minutes, and a string of policy speeches form a narrative test for global markets still balancing soft growth against sticky inflation. Expect FX volatility in NZD, USD, and CAD, and heightened attention to how central banks signal the final phase of tightening.