Central bank signals, GDP snapshots, and U.S. inflation in focus
The mid-August trading week brings a dense line-up of top-tier releases, with policy decisions from the RBA, GDP updates out of the UK, Eurozone, and Japan, plus U.S. CPI and retail sales. The interplay between inflation data and central bank tone will be front and centre for traders across FX, commodities, and equities.
🔍 Top Macro Highlights This Week
RBA Policy Decision & Press Conference (Aug 12)
The action kicks off early Tuesday with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision, monetary policy statement, and rate statement at 04:30 BST, followed by Governor Bullock’s press conference at 05:30 BST.
Markets expect the cash rate to remain unchanged, but with sticky services inflation and a still-tight labour market, forward guidance will be critical. Any hawkish tilt could lift AUD, particularly against lower-yielders.
UK Labour Market Data (Aug 12)
At 06:00 BST, the UK releases its July Claimant Count Change, three-month Employment Change, and ILO Unemployment Rate.
With wage growth running hot and the economy showing signs of cooling, these numbers will feed directly into BoE policy expectations ahead of the autumn meetings. Sterling traders should watch the balance between job growth and pay pressures closely.
U.S. CPI Inflation (Aug 12)
The main global risk event Tuesday comes at 12:30 BST, with the release of headline and core CPI for July.
Headline inflation is projected to remain steady, while core CPI is expected to edge down slightly. A stronger-than-expected print could rekindle bets on prolonged Fed hawkishness, lifting the dollar and U.S. yields, while a miss may fuel risk-on sentiment into equities and commodities.
UK GDP – Q2 Preliminary (Aug 14)
Thursday at 06:00 BST, the ONS publishes its first estimate for Q2 GDP, alongside YoY and QoQ growth rates.
After flatlining in Q1, the UK economy is expected to show marginal growth. A negative surprise could raise recession concerns and increase rate-cut speculation.
Eurozone GDP – Q2 Preliminary (Aug 14)
Just three hours later at 09:00 BST, Eurostat releases the Eurozone’s Q2 GDP estimates.
With Germany struggling and southern economies holding up better, the aggregated data will help shape ECB policy expectations for September. EUR pairs could see sharp moves if growth diverges from consensus.
Japan GDP – Q2 Preliminary (Aug 14)
Late Thursday at 23:50 BST, Japan’s Cabinet Office delivers its GDP snapshot.
Growth momentum is expected to slow, adding pressure on the BoJ as it navigates a tricky shift away from ultra-loose policy.
U.S. PPI Inflation (Aug 14)
Also Thursday at 12:30 BST, the U.S. reports Core PPI for July, a key forward-looking inflation gauge. While it tends to take a backseat to CPI, a big deviation could affect Fed expectations.
China Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Aug 15)
Friday at 02:00 BST, China releases July’s Industrial Production and Retail Sales figures.
Both will be closely watched for signs of economic reacceleration after a patchy Q2. A miss could weigh on commodities and AUD, while a beat may lift risk sentiment in Asia.
U.S. Retail Sales & Michigan Sentiment (Aug 15)
The week wraps with U.S. Retail Sales and the control group measure at 12:30 BST, followed by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary August) at 14:00 BST.
These will provide an updated read on U.S. consumer strength heading into the autumn.
đź“Š Other Notable Releases
Eurozone Harmonized CPI (Jul, Final) – Aug 13, 06:00 BST.
Australia Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (Jul) – Aug 14, 01:30 BST.
🧠Big Picture
This week brings a multi-front test for markets: U.S. inflation could reframe the Fed’s timeline, UK and Eurozone GDP prints will test the growth narrative in Europe, and China’s data may influence commodity and FX flows across Asia-Pacific.
With central banks still walking the line between cooling inflation and avoiding recession, traders should be prepared for cross-asset volatility and position adjustments across the week.