Inflation in Focus as Growth Concerns Simmer
Markets are entering the week with a cautious tone as traders balance softer global growth signals against sticky inflation in key economies. U.S. equities and bonds remain sensitive to incoming CPI and PPI data, while China’s Q2 GDP release will test the narrative around its uneven recovery.
Meanwhile, the UK and Canada deliver inflation prints that could guide central bank decisions heading into Q3. Traders should stay nimble as macro data converges with growing geopolitical uncertainties in oil supply chains and ongoing U.S.–China trade tensions following the recent “Trump Tariff Renewal” bill.
📅 Key Events to Watch
Tuesday, July 15 – The Big Data Day
-
China GDP QoQ & YoY (Q2)
Growth figures will set the tone for global demand expectations. Any downside surprise could weigh on commodity currencies like AUD and NZD. -
China Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun)
Traders will watch for signs of domestic stabilization or further weakness in consumption. -
Canada CPI (Jun)
Both core and headline inflation could drive CAD volatility as markets assess BoC’s next move. -
U.S. CPI & Core CPI (Jun)
The headline event of the week. Markets are split on whether inflation continues cooling or if core components remain sticky. A strong print could delay Fed cuts, pushing yields higher and pressuring risk assets. -
BoE Governor Bailey Speech (21:00)
Any guidance on UK inflation and growth balance will be closely scrutinized.
Wednesday, July 16 – UK CPI & U.S. PPI
-
UK CPI & Core CPI (Jun)
Sterling traders brace for volatility. With services inflation still stubbornly high, a hot print could revive hawkish BoE bets. -
U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) ex Food & Energy (Jun)
Secondary inflation metric feeding into Fed sentiment ahead of the next FOMC.
Thursday, July 17 – Labour Market Pulse
-
Australia Employment & Unemployment Rate (Jun)
AUD traders will watch for labour market softness that could shift RBA expectations. -
UK Employment & Claimant Count (Jun)
Labour market tightness could compound inflation worries for the BoE. -
U.S. Retail Sales (Jun)
A critical consumer health check. The control group component will feed directly into Q2 GDP forecasts.
Friday, July 18 – U.S. Sentiment Gauge
-
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul, Prel)
Early read on consumer confidence as rate expectations and energy costs weigh on households.
📊 Market Themes to Watch
-
USD strength or reversal: CPI and Retail Sales will determine whether the dollar rally extends or pauses.
-
Commodities: Watch crude oil as Middle East tensions and U.S. production updates influence supply risks.
-
Equities: Sensitive to U.S. growth and inflation prints. Tech could face headwinds if yields rise again.
-
FX pairs: CAD, GBP, and AUD will likely see spikes around their respective data releases.
🧭 Takeaway:
This is a macro-heavy week with inflation, growth, and labour data converging. Expect sharp intraday moves across FX, commodities, and equities as traders reposition ahead of Q3 central bank decisions.