High Impact News: 16th - 20th June 2025

High Impact News: Week of June 16–20

Another heavyweight week is coming for the markets, with key central bank decisions, top-tier inflation data, and geopolitical shocks creating a potent mix of volatility catalysts. Here's everything traders should have on their radar.

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Key Events by Day

Monday, June 16

03:00 CNY – Industrial Production (YoY, May)
China’s industrial output is a bellwether for global demand. Watch for signs of ongoing recovery or fresh slowdown signals.
03:00 CNY – Retail Sales (YoY, May)
Consumer demand in China continues to be a driver for commodity and risk sentiment. A beat could boost AUD and equities.

Tuesday, June 17

TBD JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision
The BoJ remains one of the last dovish central banks. Any rate adjustment or hint of policy shift could move JPY crosses sharply.
07:30 JPY – BoJ Press Conference
Expect volatility as Governor Ueda provides insight into future tightening, YCC adjustments, or FX views.
13:30 USD – Retail Sales (MoM, May)
Consumer spending is the backbone of the US economy. A strong read could boost USD and shift Fed rate expectations.
13:30 USD – Retail Sales Control Group (May)
This core subset excludes autos, gas, and building materials, used directly in GDP models.

Wednesday, June 18

07:00 GBP – CPI (MoM/YoY) + Core CPI (YoY, May)
A major release for GBP. Sticky inflation would add pressure for more BoE hikes or delay cuts.
16:30 CAD – BoC Governor Macklem Speech
Post-rate-decision remarks may clarify forward guidance after last week’s hold or move.
19:00 USD – FOMC Interest Rate Decision
No rate change is expected, but all eyes will be on whether the Fed reduces its rate cut projections.
19:00 USD – FOMC Economic & Rate Projections
Watch for updates to the "dot plot" and inflation outlook, market-moving on their own.
19:30 USD – FOMC Press Conference
Powell's tone will be key: dovish hints could boost equities, while hawkishness could lift the dollar.
23:45 NZD – GDP QoQ/YoY (Q1)
Economic contraction would weigh on NZD and add rate cut pressure.

Thursday, June 19

02:30 AUD – Employment Change + Unemployment Rate (May)
Critical for AUD. A beat may lift expectations for the RBA to delay easing.
08:30 CHF – SNB Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Assessment
The SNB surprised markets last quarter, another cut would likely weaken CHF, while a hold could send it higher.
09:00 CHF – SNB Press Conference
Follow the SNB's outlook for inflation and FX interventions.
12:00 GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision + MPC Votes & Statement
Markets are split on the BoE path, this release could be the decider for GBP trends this summer.

Friday, June 20

07:00 GBP – Retail Sales (MoM, May)
Another inflation-linked print, strong sales could embolden hawks within the BoE.

Geopolitical Developments

1. Israel Launches Strikes on Iran

On June 13, Israel launched a significant aerial assault on Iranian military and nuclear targets, killing top officials including IRGC commander Hossein Salami. In retaliation, Iran released waves of drones targeting strategic assets in Tel Aviv and Haifa.
Market impact: Expect oil and gold to remain bid, with safe-haven flows supporting USD, JPY, and CHF. Risk assets may struggle if the conflict escalates.

2. Tragic Air India 787 Crash in Ahmedabad

A devastating crash of an Air India Boeing 787 killed 269 passengers and crew shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad. Investigations are ongoing, and safety concerns are surfacing around Air India and Boeing.
Market impact: Likely short-term pressure on airline and manufacturing equities; potential increased volatility in aviation-linked ETFs.

What Traders Should Focus On

- Dollar Strength or Fatigue? With FOMC, CPI, and Retail Sales all landing this week, the dollar’s trend could change sharply depending on how dovish the Fed sounds.
- GBP in the Spotlight: Inflation and BoE decisions will set the tone for the pound. CPI surprise = GBP breakout.
- Crosswinds From Risk-Off Sentiment: Between Middle East tensions and tragic headlines, equities and high-beta currencies could see downside pressure.
- JPY, CHF, Gold as Havens: Classic safe-haven trades may benefit as global uncertainty surges.