High Impact News: 1st - 5th September 2025

Payrolls, Eurozone GDP, and global PMI wave set the tone
High Impact News: 1st – 5th September 2025

🔍 Top Macro Highlights This Week

China Caixin PMIs (Sep 1 & 3)
The week opens with the Caixin Manufacturing PMI on Monday (02:45 BST) and Services PMI Wednesday (02:45 BST). Both are closely watched as private-sector reads of Chinese activity. With manufacturing stuck below 50.0 and services cooling, any downside surprise could reignite concerns over China’s growth outlook and weigh on commodities and AUD.

Eurozone CPI – August Prelim (Sep 2)
At 10:00 BST Tuesday, the Eurozone releases preliminary August inflation figures. Markets are watching whether core CPI shows signs of persistent stickiness, which could keep the ECB cautious. EUR pairs may move sharply if inflation diverges from consensus.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep 2)
Later Tuesday, the U.S. prints its August manufacturing PMI at 15:00 BST. With the index at 48.0, contractionary territory, traders will assess whether manufacturing activity is stabilising or weakening further.

Australia GDP – Q2 (Sep 3)
Wednesday at 02:30 BST, Australia’s Q2 GDP is released. Growth was just 0.2% in Q1, so another soft quarter could reinforce expectations that the RBA will stay dovish.

RBA Governor Speech (Sep 3)
At 07:00 BST, Governor Bullock speaks. With inflation easing and growth subdued, markets will parse her comments for policy direction.

U.S. ADP Employment & ISM Services (Sep 3)
Mid-week, attention turns to U.S. jobs and services. ADP prints at 13:15 BST, followed by ISM Services at 15:00 BST. Both serve as leading indicators for Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls.

Eurozone Retail Sales (Sep 4)
Thursday at 10:00 BST, Eurozone retail sales provide another consumer demand check. Weakness here could reinforce the slowdown narrative.

Eurozone GDP – Q2 (Sep 5)
Friday at 10:00 BST, Eurozone GDP arrives. Q2 is expected at just 0.1% QoQ, with YoY growth at 1.4%. A miss could strengthen expectations of ECB rate cuts later this year.

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls & Wages (Sep 5)
The main event comes Friday at 13:30 BST: U.S. NFP, unemployment, and wage growth. Last month saw just 73K jobs added, signalling labour market cooling. With wages still elevated at 3.9% YoY, the balance between weaker hiring and sticky pay pressures is key. A hot wage print could keep the Fed hawkish, while a soft jobs report may spark risk-on sentiment and weigh on USD.

Canada Labour Market Data (Sep 5)
Released alongside NFP, Canada’s employment change and unemployment rate will shape BoC expectations. After a steep -40.8K decline last month, another weak report could drag on CAD.

📊 Other Notable Releases
– AUD Trade Balance (Jul) – Sep 4, 02:30 BST
– CHF CPI (Aug) – Sep 4, 07:30 BST

🧠 Big Picture
This week is a classic macro storm: global PMIs, Eurozone inflation and growth, plus the all-important U.S. jobs report. China’s Caixin data will set the tone for risk appetite early, but Friday’s NFP and wage growth figures are the main event, with the potential to reshape Fed expectations heading into autumn. Cross-asset volatility should be expected, particularly if the U.S. data delivers a major surprise.