High Impact News: Week of September 30
As we head into the final week of September, markets are preparing for a busy slate of economic data and central bank activity that could influence global sentiment. From China’s manufacturing data to the highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls report, here’s what to keep an eye on for next week:
Monday, September 30
China will be in the spotlight early Monday with the release of the NBS Manufacturing PMI and Caixin Manufacturing PMI for September. Both indicators are expected to remain in contraction, with the NBS PMI forecasted at 49.1 and Caixin at 50.4. This could reflect further cooling in China’s economy as the country grapples with ongoing challenges in the industrial sector. Additionally, the Caixin Services PMI will be released, providing insights into the broader services economy.
The Eurozone will publish its Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, with a year-on-year CPI expected to come in at 1.9%, down slightly from the previous month’s 2%. This data will be critical as the European Central Bank (ECB) considers its next steps in tackling inflation. ECB President Christine Lagarde has indicated that inflation remains a primary focus, and any deviation from consensus could influence Euro movement.
Tuesday, October 1
In Japan, the Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for Q3 is set to drop, with an expected reading of 13. Investors will be paying close attention to this number as a barometer of business confidence in Japan's key manufacturing sector.
Meanwhile, Australia’s Retail Sales data for August will offer insights into consumer spending, which has remained flat over recent months. A continuation of weak retail activity could further pressure the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to consider stimulus measures in the months ahead.
In the Eurozone, inflation data continues with the Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and overall HICP figures for September, offering deeper insight into the region’s inflation trends.
Wednesday, October 2
In the US, the ADP Employment Change report for September is expected to show modest job growth, with a forecast of 99K. Given the Federal Reserve’s close monitoring of employment data, this release could set the tone ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.
Thursday, October 3
Australia returns to focus with its Trade Balance for August. With a trade surplus expected around AUD 6 billion, this data will reflect the ongoing performance of Australia's export sector, particularly in light of slowing demand from China.
Meanwhile, Switzerland will release its Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, expected to come in at 1.1% year-on-year, showcasing the ongoing low inflation environment in the country.
In the UK, the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Report Hearings will take center stage, as Governor Andrew Bailey addresses Parliament. Traders will be listening for any changes in the BoE's stance amid ongoing inflation concerns and economic uncertainty.
Friday, October 4
The week will conclude with the much-anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls report for September. With a forecast of 142K jobs added, this key employment figure could significantly impact the US dollar and broader market sentiment. Alongside the jobs report, Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) is expected to increase by 0.4%, and year-on-year earnings are forecasted at 3.8%.
As always, the Nonfarm Payrolls report will be a critical input for the Federal Reserve's next policy decisions. Any surprises here could sway market expectations for the Fed’s upcoming rate path.
With a heavy dose of global data, particularly around inflation and employment, markets are likely to experience volatility throughout the week. Watch out for significant movements across the Euro, USD, and AUD as economic figures unfold.
