High Impact News: Week of October 7
As we head into the second week of October, several key economic indicators and central bank meetings are set to shape the market. The focus will shift between retail sales in Europe, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) interest rate decision, and important inflation data from the US. Here’s a breakdown of the high-impact events to keep an eye on:
Monday, October 7
The week starts with Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) for August, expected to come in at -0.1%. This release will give insight into the health of consumer spending across the Eurozone, a key driver of economic growth. Any deviation from the expected figure could prompt movement in the EUR, especially as traders consider the broader economic context of the region.
Tuesday, October 8
In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting Minutes will be released, providing more details on the RBA's decision-making process from their recent interest rate meeting. Investors will be looking for clues on future monetary policy direction, particularly in light of global economic uncertainties.
Wednesday, October 9
New Zealand takes the spotlight early Wednesday with the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement. The market expects the RBNZ to hold rates steady at 5%, but traders will closely analyze the accompanying statement for any signs of future rate adjustments.
Later in the day, attention will turn to the US as the FOMC Minutes are released. These minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting will offer insights into the Fed’s thinking around inflation, interest rates, and the economic outlook, setting the stage for upcoming rate decisions.
Thursday, October 10
The US will release a critical batch of inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September leading the charge. The CPI (MoM) is expected to rise by 0.2%, while the CPI (YoY) is forecasted at 2.5%. Meanwhile, the core measure, which excludes food and energy prices, is predicted to rise by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year. These inflation figures will be pivotal for the Fed’s rate decisions as the year comes to a close.
In the UK, the BoE Monetary Policy Report Hearings will take place, offering more details on the Bank of England’s current economic outlook and monetary stance. As inflation continues to challenge the UK economy, these hearings will be closely monitored for any potential changes in policy.
Friday, October 11
The week wraps up with a range of important releases. The EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) for September is expected to remain at 1.8%, reflecting steady inflation in the Eurozone. Across the Atlantic, Canada will report its Net Change in Employment (Sep), with markets predicting a moderate gain in employment and the Unemployment Rate forecasted at 6.6%. These figures will provide key insights into the Canadian labor market.
Lastly, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) ex Food & Energy (YoY) for September is expected to hit 2.4%, while the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for October will offer the first glimpse of consumer confidence this month, with an expected reading of 70.1.
With a combination of central bank decisions and pivotal inflation data on the horizon, this week promises to bring increased market volatility. Traders should be particularly mindful of the US CPI release, which could strongly influence the Fed’s upcoming rate path, and the RBNZ’s interest rate decision, which could spark movement in the NZD. Stay tuned for these key events as the global economic picture continues to evolve.