Weekly High Impact News Preview
This week is packed with high-impact data and central bank decisions that could steer market sentiment heading into year-end. We’ve already seen some movement, particularly out of China, where Industrial Production grew by 5.4% YoY for November, slightly above expectations, but Retail Sales missed at 3% YoY (vs 4.6% consensus), reflecting weaker consumer demand. Moving into Europe, preliminary PMI data showed ongoing struggles in manufacturing but a slight improvement in the services sector, particularly in Germany, suggesting that some areas of the eurozone economy are showing signs of stabilization.
Looking ahead, the major focus will be on central banks and inflation data. On Tuesday, UK labor market data, including the Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate, will offer insights into employment trends, while Canada’s CPI print will help us gauge how inflation is faring ahead of the BoC’s next steps. US Retail Sales for November, also on Tuesday, will be critical for assessing consumer strength during the holiday season, particularly after October’s mixed results.
Wednesday brings the Fed Interest Rate Decision and FOMC Economic Projections, where markets will look for signals on future rate cuts. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at 4.5%, but Powell’s tone at the press conference will be key as traders look for clues on 2024 policy. Later in the day, New Zealand’s GDP will help set the tone for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s outlook after two quarters of softening growth.
On Thursday, the spotlight turns to Japan’s BoJ Interest Rate Decision and the BoE Interest Rate Decision, both expected to hold steady. However, the voting breakdown and comments from BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee will be closely watched, particularly after recent inflation data. We’ll wrap up the week with Friday’s US Core PCE print—one of the Fed’s preferred inflation measures—expected to come in at 0.2% MoM, offering further clarity on the inflation trajectory in the US.
With central banks wrapping up the year and key data prints unfolding, this week will provide valuable signals about where monetary policy and global economies are heading in early 2024. We need to stay sharp, particularly around the Fed, BoE, and PCE releases, as these will likely drive significant market moves.