Weekly High-Impact News Outlook
Next week is shaping up to be critical for traders, with a series of high-impact data releases and key economic indicators across major regions. Inflation, employment, and consumer sentiment data will take center stage, providing important clues about the direction of global economies and potential central bank actions.
Monday: European Inflation in Focus
The week begins with China’s Caixin Services PMI for December at 01:45, which will offer insight into the recovery of China’s services sector post-reopening. Later in the day, we’ll turn our attention to Europe with the release of the preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) at 13:00. With inflation having shown signs of slowing in recent months, markets will be watching closely to see if the trend continues, especially given the ECB’s recent hawkish stance. Any upside surprise could heighten expectations for further rate hikes in 2024.
Tuesday: Swiss Inflation and US Services PMI
At 07:30, Switzerland will release its CPI data for December. Inflation in Switzerland has remained relatively low compared to other economies, but any unexpected rise could influence the SNB’s policy outlook. Later at 15:00, the US ISM Services PMI for December will be closely watched. Given the resilience of the US service sector in recent months, this release will help gauge whether demand is holding up despite tighter monetary conditions.
Wednesday: US ADP Employment and FOMC Minutes
The focus shifts to employment data and monetary policy on Wednesday. At 13:15, the US ADP Employment Change for December will provide an early look at private sector job growth ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. Later at 19:00, the FOMC Minutes will be released, offering valuable insights into the Fed’s latest meeting and any discussions around future rate paths. Traders will be keen to see if there were any signs of division among policymakers regarding further tightening.
Thursday: Australian Retail Sales and European Retail Data
Thursday kicks off with key data from Australia, including Retail Sales and the Trade Balance for November, both at 00:30. These figures will be crucial in assessing how Australian consumers are coping with elevated interest rates. At 10:00, the eurozone’s Retail Sales (YoY) for November will provide further clues about consumer spending in the region, a key driver of economic growth.
Friday: US Nonfarm Payrolls and Canadian Employment
The week concludes with a series of high-impact events on Friday. At 01:30, China will release its CPI data for December, which will be important in gauging inflationary pressures in the world’s second-largest economy. At 13:30, we have major employment data from both Canada and the US. Canada will release its Net Change in Employment and Unemployment Rate for December, while the US will publish the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls report. Consensus expectations are for 200K jobs added, with Average Hourly Earnings expected to grow 0.3% MoM and 4.6% YoY. Strong labor market data could strengthen the case for further Fed tightening, while any signs of cooling could ease rate hike expectations. Finally, at 15:00, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January will provide a forward-looking view of consumer confidence in the US.
Conclusion
With inflation, employment, and consumer sentiment data dominating the calendar, next week’s releases will provide critical insights into the health of major economies. Expect volatility across major currency pairs, particularly the USD, EUR, AUD, and CAD, as markets react to these pivotal data points. Staying on top of these key releases will be essential for framing trading decisions and adjusting strategies in response to any surprises.