High Impact News – Week of April 14th
This week’s economic calendar is packed with heavyweight data and central bank updates that could shake up markets across multiple regions, all unfolding in the shadow of heightened global trade tensions. With the US-China tariff skirmish intensifying and volatility on the rise, traders should stay alert for any signs of unexpected market reactions.
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Tuesday kicks things off with a focus on employment and inflation. We’ll start in Australia with the RBA Meeting Minutes at 02:30. Traders will be combing through the details for any signals on future rate path intentions, especially after recent data pointed to persistent inflationary pressures. If the RBA strikes a more hawkish tone, it could lend strength to the Aussie dollar.
The UK then steps in at 07:00 with a triple employment release: Claimant Count Change, Employment Change (3M), and the ILO Unemployment Rate. The labour market has remained relatively resilient in the UK, but any signs of softening could shift rate expectations for the Bank of England, particularly with inflation data due later in the week.
Later in the morning, the ECB Bank Lending Survey could offer insights into how eurozone credit conditions are evolving. Tightening lending standards often precede economic slowdown, so this one could be an early clue on how businesses and consumers are responding to the ECB’s recent policies.
At 13:30, attention shifts to Canada with the BoC Core CPI (YoY) and headline CPI (YoY) figures. These releases are key to gauging how sticky inflation is in Canada and could directly impact the BoC's rate decision later in the week. Canadian dollar volatility tends to spike on CPI days, so be ready.
Wednesday is the real macro monster of the week, with tier-1 data pouring in from Asia, Europe, and North America.
China kicks off the day at 03:00 with a quadruple release: GDP (QoQ & YoY), Industrial Production, and Retail Sales, all for Q1 or March. Given the current trade tensions and Beijing’s push for stability, these prints will give a critical read on China’s post-pandemic growth story. A weak GDP could ripple into risk sentiment globally, especially across commodities and EM currencies.
At 07:00, the UK returns to the spotlight with its CPI (MoM & YoY) and Core CPI (YoY). With inflation still running hot, traders will be watching closely to see if the BoE will continue its cautious tone or be pressured into a more dovish stance. Market reactions in GBP pairs can be swift and aggressive depending on how the actuals compare to consensus.
Then, at 13:30, the US Retail Sales (MoM) and Control Group data will hit the wires. With US growth showing signs of cooling while inflation remains stubborn, retail sales will provide a crucial temperature check on consumer spending, a backbone of the US economy. A miss here could fuel speculation about earlier rate cuts from the Fed.
At 14:45, Canada returns with a BoC Rate Decision and accompanying Monetary Policy Report. This will be followed by a Press Conference at 15:30, where markets will scrutinise every word for any forward guidance. Expect CAD volatility across the board.
Finally, the day closes with New Zealand CPI (QoQ & YoY) at 23:45. With the RBNZ still holding one of the most restrictive policy stances globally, inflation data here will be key in determining whether that approach remains justified.
Thursday continues the central bank focus. At 02:30, Australia will publish Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate. These labour figures are always market-moving for AUD, and with the RBA minutes earlier in the week, traders will be recalibrating expectations based on how the job market holds up.
At 13:15, it’s Europe’s turn again with the ECB's Main Refinancing Rate, Deposit Facility Rate, and Monetary Policy Statement, followed shortly by a Press Conference at 13:45. While no immediate changes are expected, the tone and language will be pivotal. With growth data looking fragile and inflation still a concern, how the ECB threads that needle will shape euro sentiment for weeks to come.
This is one of those weeks where sitting on your hands might not be an option. Inflation, labour markets, retail sales, and central bank rhetoric all come together under the backdrop of spiking volatility and geopolitical uncertainty. Whether you’re swing trading macro themes or scalping CPI releases, the opportunities and risks are abundant.
Stay sharp, keep position sizing in check, and prepare for some rapid market reactions.