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High Impact News: 21st - 25th July

Central Banks and PMIs Take Center Stage

This week is shaping up to be a critical one for global markets, with central bank decisions, inflation prints, and PMI data converging to set the tone for Q3.

The spotlight will be on the European Central Bank (ECB) as markets look for clues on rate cuts heading into September. Meanwhile, early PMI data from Europe, the UK, and the U.S. will provide insight into whether global growth is stabilizing or slipping further into stagnation.

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📅 Key Events to Watch

Sunday, July 20 – New Zealand CPI (Q2)

  • NZD CPI QoQ & YoY: Inflation data out of New Zealand kicks off the week. A hotter print could strengthen the Kiwi as traders reassess the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s tightening bias.

Tuesday, July 22 – RBA Minutes & ECB Lending Survey

  • RBA Meeting Minutes: Markets will parse the minutes for any shift in tone after the Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets earlier this month.

  • ECB Bank Lending Survey: Lending conditions offer an important leading indicator of economic health across the eurozone.

Thursday, July 24 – A Macro Heavyweight Day

  • RBA Governor Bullock Speech: AUD traders will watch for any forward guidance on rates.

  • Eurozone Flash PMIs (Jul): HCOB Composite, Manufacturing, and Services PMIs could confirm whether Europe’s fragile recovery is gaining traction.

  • SNB Chairman Schlegel Speech: Could give insight into the Swiss National Bank’s response to persistent Swiss franc strength.

  • UK Flash PMIs (Jul): Any weakness could see GBP under pressure ahead of the BoE’s August meeting.

  • ECB Rate Decision & Press Conference:

    • Markets are pricing in no change this time, but attention will be on Lagarde’s tone for hints of a possible September cut. Expect EUR volatility during the press conference.

  • U.S. Flash PMIs (Jul): U.S. data continues to hold up better than Europe. A surprise slowdown could reprice Fed expectations.

Friday, July 25 – Inflation & Retail Data

  • Tokyo CPI (Jul): A key inflation print ahead of the Bank of Japan’s meeting.

  • UK Retail Sales (Jun): Could show whether UK consumers are feeling the squeeze from sticky inflation and higher rates.

Market Themes to Watch

  • EUR in Focus: ECB rhetoric and flash PMIs could determine whether EUR/USD breaks higher or retests recent lows.

  • Global Growth Signals: Composite PMIs from major economies will shape risk sentiment across equities and commodities.

  • Commodities: Watch oil and gold for moves tied to central bank tone and PMI surprises.

  • Yields & USD: U.S. PMIs and eurozone data could drive bond market volatility and shape USD flows.

🧭 Takeaway:
With central bank meetings, high-frequency PMI data, and key inflation prints, traders should expect volatility across FX, equities, and commodities. Stay nimble and keep your calendar close.