GDP updates, inflation signals, and PCE in the spotlight
High Impact News: 24th – 29th August 2025
🔍 Top Macro Highlights This Week
New Zealand Retail Sales – Q2 (Aug 24)
The week begins late Sunday with NZD Q2 retail sales at 23:45 BST. After a sluggish 0.8% last quarter, markets will look for signs of resilience in consumer demand amid high interest rates. A strong figure could bolster NZD sentiment heading into the RBNZ’s next meetings.
RBA Minutes – August (Aug 26)
Tuesday at 02:30 BST, the Reserve Bank of Australia releases minutes from its latest policy meeting. With inflation pressures easing but wage growth still strong, traders will scrutinise the text for forward guidance on rate cuts or extended pauses. AUD pairs could see movement if the tone diverges from expectations.
Australia Monthly CPI – July (Aug 27)
Wednesday at 02:30 BST brings Australia’s monthly CPI. Headline inflation last printed at 1.9% YoY, comfortably inside the RBA’s band. Another soft reading may reinforce a cautious stance, while any upside could reignite hawkish bets.
GDP Data – Switzerland & US (Aug 28)
Thursday is GDP-heavy. Switzerland’s Q2 GDP arrives at 08:00 BST, expected at 0.5% QoQ, followed at 13:30 BST by the U.S. preliminary Q2 GDP print. The U.S. economy grew 3% in Q1; traders will watch for revisions that might alter Fed policy expectations and risk sentiment across equities and USD.
Tokyo CPI – August (Aug 29)
Friday kicks off with Tokyo’s inflation gauges at 00:30 BST. Often seen as a leading indicator for Japan’s nationwide CPI, headline inflation last stood at 2.9%, with the ex-Food & Energy measure at 3.1%. A hotter print could pressure the BoJ to continue edging away from ultra-loose policy, lifting JPY.
Eurozone CPI – August Prelim (Aug 29)
At 13:00 BST, the Eurozone reports preliminary August CPI. Headline inflation is forecast at 2.0% YoY, with the harmonised index at 1.8%. Any deviation could shift ECB expectations heading into September, especially with growth momentum faltering.
North American Data – Canada GDP & U.S. PCE (Aug 29)
Friday afternoon is packed. Canada releases Q2 GDP at 13:30 BST, last at 2.2%. Simultaneously, the U.S. prints its Core PCE Price Index (MoM and YoY), the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. With July’s YoY at 2.8%, markets will be highly sensitive to even minor deviations. Stronger-than-expected PCE could push back Fed cut expectations and support USD.
📊 Other Notable Releases
– EUR Retail Sales (Jul) – Aug 29, 07:00 BST
– CHF Q2 GDP – Aug 28, 08:00 BST
🧠 Big Picture
This week is dominated by growth and inflation signals: GDP snapshots from Switzerland, Canada, and the U.S. provide a read on momentum across advanced economies, while CPI prints in Japan, the Eurozone, and Australia keep central bank narratives in focus. But it’s the U.S. Core PCE on Friday that could be decisive, with markets finely balanced between inflation cooling and resilient growth, any surprise here could set the tone for September trading across FX, equities, and bonds.