High Impact News: 26th - 30th May 2025

High Impact News: Key Macro Events to Watch | May 26th – 30th

A packed macro week lies ahead, with attention turning to central bank commentary, inflation updates, and GDP prints across several key regions. As the month draws to a close, volatility may rise, so let’s break down what traders should be watching.

Sunday, May 25

📢 USD – Fed Chair Powell Speech
Markets will be listening closely for any shift in tone from Powell regarding inflation stickiness or the Fed’s forward guidance on rate cuts. Even subtle changes can rattle USD pairs or spark shifts in bond and equity markets.

Tuesday, May 27

🎙️ JPY – BoJ Governor Ueda Speech
Given recent speculation around BoJ policy tightening and yen intervention risks, any commentary from Ueda could lead to volatility in JPY crosses. Keep a close eye on JPY liquidity around this time.

Wednesday, May 28

📊 AUD – Monthly CPI YoY (Apr)
Australia’s inflation data will be a key input for RBA expectations. A beat here could fuel AUD strength on speculation of a more hawkish RBA stance.

🏦 NZD – RBNZ Rate Decision & Press Conference
This is a major event for NZD traders. With inflation still above target and growth slowing, markets will be watching whether the RBNZ holds or shifts its tone on future hikes or cuts. The press conference may contain crucial forward guidance.

📝 USD – FOMC Minutes
The minutes from the latest Fed meeting will offer insight into internal debates, especially regarding how sticky inflation is and the path of future rate cuts. Any dovish or hawkish bias could swing USD sentiment.

Thursday, May 29

📈 USD – Q1 GDP (Preliminary)
A second look at US Q1 growth. A surprise to the upside may back recent "higher for longer" rate expectations; a downward revision could spark risk-off reactions and put pressure on the dollar.

Friday, May 30

🇯🇵 JPY – Tokyo CPI (May)
Often a leading indicator of national inflation trends, Tokyo CPI will help shape views on the BoJ's inflation outlook. Anything hotter than expected could raise speculation of rate normalization.

🛍️ AUD – Retail Sales (Apr)
A key read on consumer strength in Australia. A strong print could support AUD, while a miss would reinforce cautious RBA outlooks.

🛍️ EUR – Retail Sales (YoY, Apr)
As Europe continues to balance sluggish growth and easing inflation, weak retail sales may pressure EUR if recession concerns return.

📊 EUR – CPI Prelim (May)
The eurozone inflation print is arguably the biggest market mover for EUR this week. A strong reading may cool ECB rate cut hopes, while a soft number will support dovish policy assumptions.

📉 CAD – Q1 GDP (Annualized)
Canada’s growth numbers are expected to reflect the impact of higher rates. Weak GDP could reinforce dovish BoC expectations, especially ahead of the next rate decision.

💸 USD – Core PCE (MoM & YoY, Apr)
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. This release will directly shape expectations for the next Fed move. A higher-than-expected print could reignite USD bullishness and drive risk-off flows.

Saturday, May 31

🏭 CNY – NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI (May)
With China’s recovery still mixed, these PMIs will give important clues on economic momentum. Strong readings could lift global sentiment, while softness may weigh on risk assets and commodity currencies like AUD and NZD.

🔍 What to Watch as a Trader

• USD sensitivity around PCE and Powell's comments

• NZD volatility across RBNZ decisions and press conference

• CPI data in the EU, Japan, and US which could recalibrate rate cut pricing

• Cross-asset reactions, especially in commodities and indices, driven by GDP and inflation prints

Trade safe and keep your risk approach sharp. This is a week that could reshape short-term narratives across global markets.