🧠 High Impact News – Week of July 29
We’re heading into one of the most critical macro weeks of the quarter, with three major central bank meetings and a flurry of inflation, growth, and labour market data from across the globe. Traders, this is where the macro tide can turn.
🏦 Central Banks Take Centre Stage
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Federal Reserve (Wednesday, 19:00 BST): The FOMC rate decision and press conference could set the tone for markets into August. While the Fed is expected to hold, investors will be laser-focused on any language hinting at a timeline for rate cuts, especially after last week’s soft CPI data.
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Bank of Canada (Wednesday, 14:45 BST): Markets expect the BoC to hold after June’s 25bps cut. Forward guidance will be key as Canada balances easing inflation with a still-resilient labour market.
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Bank of Japan (Thursday, time TBC): After finally exiting NIRP earlier this year, all eyes are on the BoJ’s inflation forecasts and pace of further tightening. Expect volatility in JPY pairs.
📊 Data to Watch
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Wednesday:
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Australia’s Q2 CPI (02:30 BST): Crucial for the RBA’s forward path. Sticky prints could revive hike expectations.
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Eurozone GDP (07:00 & 10:00 BST): Early reads on Q2 growth momentum.
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US Q2 GDP & ADP Employment (13:15 & 13:30 BST): A key combo for gauging economic resilience ahead of the Fed.
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Thursday:
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Retail Sales (02:30 BST) & China PMI (02:30 BST): China’s NBS PMIs offer insight into the world’s second-largest economy amid ongoing property sector woes.
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Eurozone CPI (13:00 BST): Flash estimates for July headline and core inflation, key for September ECB speculation.
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US PCE Inflation (13:30 BST): The Fed’s preferred gauge. Core PCE will be closely dissected for month-on-month trends.
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Friday:
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Nonfarm Payrolls (13:30 BST): The big one. Forecasts suggest a steady pace of hiring, but watch wage growth closely. Strong numbers could reset Fed expectations.
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ISM Manufacturing PMI (15:00 BST): Will the US factory sector finally show signs of life?
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How to Position
This week could mark a macro inflection point. A dovish Fed and softer labour data might reignite risk appetite, bullish for equities, bearish for USD. Conversely, resilient US data and sticky inflation prints globally could push yields and volatility higher.
Traders: adjust your size, keep risk in check, and be prepared for fast-moving markets across USD, gold, indices, and bond futures.