Tensions between Iran and Israel continue to simmer after last week’s dramatic escalation. With the U.S. confirming its airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and Iran threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, markets are on edge. Brent crude has hovered around $81–83/barrel, while safe-haven assets like gold and the Swiss franc remain bid. Although the Strait hasn’t officially been shut, any sign of maritime disruption could send oil prices soaring and ripple through global inflation prints.
Meanwhile, central banks are stuck in a balancing act: they want to support growth without igniting another inflationary spike driven by energy costs. This week’s inflation and labor market data will be pivotal.
Due to U.S. Independence Day falling on Friday, July 4th, the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will be released a day early on Thursday, July 3rd at 13:30 UTC.
To mark the occasion, we’re going live with Aatu, the trader behind THA, one of Darwinex’s most successful macro strategies with over $22M in AUM. He’ll be walking through the market in real-time, sharing his process and live analysis during the NFP release.
📅 Livestream starts Thursday, July 3rd
📍 THA’s $22M Macro Strategy: Live for NFP
🔗 Don’t miss it on the Darwinex YouTube Channel
EUR CPI & HICP (Jun, Prel): The flash Eurozone CPI print will test how sticky inflation really is. A miss here could give the ECB room to signal future cuts, but geopolitical tensions are likely to keep policymakers cautious.
CNY NBS Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun): China’s recovery remains uneven. A weak PMI would add fuel to global demand concerns, especially for commodity-linked currencies like AUD and NZD.
JPY Tankan Survey (Q2): A key confidence gauge for Japanese corporates. Strength could reinforce the BoJ’s slow and steady exit path from ultra-easy policy.
CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun): A read on smaller Chinese firms. Expect markets to be sensitive to even minor surprises.
USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun): The U.S. manufacturing sector has been in contraction for months. Any sign of recovery could reduce odds of a Fed rate cut in Q3.
USD ADP Employment (Jun): A pre-NFP preview. Traders will be watching for signs of labor market cooling after a few months of resilience.
USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun): This is the week’s headline print. With inflation softening and Fed policy hanging in the balance, a weak jobs number could accelerate rate-cut expectations.
USD ISM Services PMI (Jun): Services have driven U.S. growth. Any slowdown here would signal broader economic fatigue.
THA NFP Livestream: Join one of Darwinex’s top traders live during the event.
GBP BoE Governor Bailey Speech: After UK CPI surprised to the upside recently, traders will dissect Bailey’s tone for signs of further tightening or patience.
FX: USD remains sensitive to labor and inflation data. CHF and JPY flows may increase on risk-off moves. EUR’s path hinges on CPI and HICP numbers.
Equities: Equity markets may whipsaw on macro data and oil price swings. Tech remains strong, but any NFP shock could trigger rebalancing.
Commodities: Crude oil is one headline away from breaking out. Gold remains a core hedge against geopolitical risk.
Bonds: Yield curves will respond directly to inflation and jobs data. U.S. 2Y/10Y inversion persists, any dovish surprise could steepen the curve.
Keep your calendar tight and your risk tighter - it’s a week where both macro fundamentals and global events could shift sentiment fast. All eyes on Thursday’s NFP and ongoing Middle East headlines.