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High Impact News: 4th - 9th August 2025

High Impact News: Week of August 4–10, 2025
Eyes on the Bank of England, global labor markets, and key inflation reads

As we move into the first full week of August, markets are on edge once again, this time with the spotlight on the Bank of England, key employment figures out of Canada and New Zealand, and fresh inflation data from China and Switzerland. Here’s what traders and investors should be watching:

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🔍 Top Macro Highlights This Week

Bank of England Super Thursday (Aug 7)
All eyes turn to the Bank of England this Thursday for what’s shaping up to be one of the most consequential decisions of the summer.
At 12:00 BST, the BoE will release:

  • Interest Rate Decision

  • Monetary Policy Report

  • Meeting Minutes

  • Summary and Vote Breakdown

With inflation easing but growth concerns mounting, markets are split on whether the Bank will signal another pause or deliver a hawkish tilt. Governor Andrew Bailey will speak at 12:30 BST, and his tone will likely guide GBP crosses and UK rate expectations into the autumn.

ISM Services PMI (Aug 5)
Coming off a disappointing manufacturing print, attention shifts to the U.S. Services sector, which has held firm in recent months.
The July ISM Services PMI will be released at 15:00 BST on Tuesday. Consensus expects a modest pullback from June’s 52.6. Anything below 50 could trigger renewed risk-off sentiment, particularly ahead of the Fed’s Jackson Hole gathering later this month.

New Zealand Employment Report (Aug 5)
At 23:45 BST on Tuesday, we get the Q2 employment change and unemployment rate from New Zealand.
This data will be critical in setting expectations ahead of the RBNZ meeting on August 14. Job growth has been softening, and a disappointing print here could add fuel to rate-cut speculation and pressure NZD pairs.

Canada Jobs Report (Aug 8)
Friday at 13:30 BST, Canada releases its July Net Change in Employment and Unemployment Rate.
Following a surprise drop in employment last month, markets are looking for signs of stabilization. With the Bank of Canada on pause but inflation still sticky, this data could reprice CAD pairs into the next BoC meeting.

📊 Other Notable Releases

  • Swiss CPI (Jul) – Monday at 07:30 BST. Important for CHF pairs and SNB rate trajectory.

  • China Caixin Services PMI (Jul) – Tuesday at 02:45 BST. Key read on private-sector activity amid ongoing growth concerns.

  • Eurozone Retail Sales (Jun) – Wednesday at 10:00 BST. A backward-looking but useful indicator for gauging consumer resilience.

  • Australia Trade Balance (Jun) – Thursday at 02:30 BST. Watch AUD sensitivity to China demand and commodity flow.

  • RBNZ Inflation Expectations (Q3) – Thursday at 04:00 BST. Long-term inflation outlook is closely watched by the central bank.

  • China CPI (Jul) – Saturday at 02:30 BST. Will inflation return to China, or does deflation risk remain a theme?

🧠 Big Picture

With major central bank divergence, softening labor markets, and China’s economic reacceleration still uncertain, volatility remains on the table this week. The BoE’s tone on Thursday will be particularly influential for global risk sentiment, especially as FX markets continue to reposition around growth differentials and policy expectations.

Stay nimble, manage your exposure, and as always: track your edge.