On July 4th, President Trump signed his flagship legislation into law: The One Big Beautiful Bill. Heralded as a once-in-a-generation move to “put America First,” the sweeping bill combines historic tax cuts, major energy and infrastructure initiatives, and aggressive trade protections.
For traders, the bill’s impact on commodities, bonds, and USD flows will be critical to watch in the weeks ahead.
EUR Retail Sales YoY (May): A weak print could amplify fears of stagnation across the bloc. EUR traders will be watching for signs that consumption is finally rebounding after months of subdued demand.
AUD RBA Rate Decision & Statements:
After pausing last month, the Reserve Bank of Australia faces mounting pressure to hold rates amid mixed economic data. A surprise hike could see AUD spike short term, but forward guidance will likely drive direction into Q3.
CNY CPI (Jun): Any further signs of deflationary pressure in China could weigh on commodity currencies like AUD and NZD.
NZD RBNZ Rate Decision: With rates already at restrictive levels, most expect the RBNZ to hold, but language around inflation persistence will be key for Kiwi direction.
USD FOMC Minutes (Jun): Expect traders to comb through for clues on whether Powell’s team is leaning dovish after softening labor data, or if inflation stickiness will keep rate cuts on ice for now.
EUR HICP YoY (Jun): A critical data point for the ECB, especially as market chatter grows around potential Q4 rate cuts.
CAD Jobs Data (Jun): Employment change and unemployment rate will shape BoC expectations heading into their next meeting.
USD strength: Trump’s bill raises growth and deficit expectations.
Commodities: Crude oil under pressure on U.S. supply plans.
Equities: Trade-sensitive sectors may whipsaw on tariff fears.
Bonds: U.S. yields could climb if fiscal expansion meets sticky inflation.