ECB decision, U.S. inflation, and Japan GDP headline the week
High Impact News: 7th – 12th September 2025
🔍 Top Macro Highlights This Week
Japan GDP – Q2 (Sep 7)
The week kicks off late Sunday with Japan’s Q2 GDP at 23:50 BST. Growth came in at 0.5% QoQ versus expectations of 0.3%, showing the economy remains resilient despite global headwinds. A stronger trajectory could support JPY, particularly if investors see less justification for the BoJ’s ultra-accommodative stance.
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision (Sep 9)
On Tuesday at 14:00 BST, the U.S. releases its annual benchmark revision to payrolls. While backward-looking, this data can shift perceptions of labour market strength, altering how traders interpret recent Fed commentary.
China CPI – August (Sep 10)
Wednesday at 01:30 BST, China’s CPI prints. The prior month saw deflationary pressures (-0.2% YoY). A recovery toward positive territory would ease concerns over domestic demand weakness, with implications for commodities and AUD.
ECB Rate Decision & Press Conference (Sep 11)
Thursday is the week’s blockbuster. At 12:15 BST, the ECB announces its latest policy rates, with the refinancing rate and deposit facility both expected to hold steady at 2.15% and 2.00%. The Monetary Policy Statement follows immediately, before President Lagarde’s press conference at 12:45 BST. Traders will focus on guidance around inflation, which remains close to target, and whether the ECB signals cuts later this year. EUR volatility is likely across all crosses.
U.S. CPI – August (Sep 11)
Minutes later at 12:30 BST, the U.S. publishes CPI for August. Headline inflation is expected at 2.9% YoY (prev. 2.7%), with core at 3.1%. Hotter readings could push Fed rate-cut bets further out, supporting USD and Treasury yields, while softer numbers may ease financial conditions.
Eurozone HICP – August Final (Sep 12)
Friday at 06:00 BST, Eurostat confirms final August HICP, last at 2.1% YoY. While unlikely to surprise significantly, this will add context to Thursday’s ECB decisions.
U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment – September Prel (Sep 12)
The week wraps up Friday at 14:00 BST with preliminary September sentiment. The index is seen improving to 59.2 from 58.2, but confidence remains subdued. A surprise surge could reinforce narratives of consumer resilience; weakness may feed into slowdown concerns.
📊 Other Notable Releases
– CHF SNB Chair Schlegel speech – Sep 10, 11:45 BST
– U.S. PPI ex Food & Energy (Aug) – Sep 10, 12:30 BST
🧠 Big Picture
The week brings a packed midsection where central banks and inflation dominate. The ECB and U.S. CPI land within 30 minutes of each other on Thursday, creating a potential flashpoint for EURUSD and cross-asset volatility. With Japan showing stronger growth, China fighting deflation, and U.S. inflation risks still live, global markets face a complex mix of growth and policy signals heading into mid-September.